Master 2

Unité avancée au choix dans le domaine de spécialisation Économie théorique

Semestre : S2

Volume horaire : 24h

ECTS : 3

Localisation : Campus Jourdan

Enseignant : Itzhak GILBOA

The course describes the foundations of the theory of decisions under uncertainty. It starts with various definitions of "probability", relating it to the notion of randomness, the problem of induction, and complexity. The course proceeds to introduce the axiomatic approach and to describe and discuss several classical representation theorems. Their discussion involves issues of normative and descriptive science, the role of theories and paradigms, and the notion of rationality. Several problematic issues are discussed from the Bayesian point of view. The course then proceeds to discuss limitations of the classical theory : behavioral violations of its tenets, as well as its limitations as a standard of rationality. Non-Bayesian theories of decision making are discussed, including Choquet expected utility and maxmin expected utility. The course then continues to discuss the origins of beliefs, and presents the axiomatic approach to case-based predictions. Finally, a unifying approach of Bayesian, case-based, and rule-based reasoning is presented and applied to the analysis of modes of reasoning.